Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction Apr 23 2026 — Liga MX

The current odds reflect the massive disparity in form and league position. While Chivas are rightfully favorites, the value lies in anticipating their continued offensive dominance. Given the gulf in class and Chivas' clear mission to secure the #1 seed, a straightforward win is the most logical outcome, with potential for a high-scoring game.

Match Preview & Form Guide

As we approach the final stretch of the 2026 Liga MX Clausura, this fixture at the Estadio Victoria presents a stark contrast in current standings and momentum. Guadalajara Chivas, managed by Gabriel Milito, currently sit at the top of the league table (1st place) with 34 points from 15 matches. Their form has been scintillating, highlighted by a dominant 5-0 victory over Puebla in their most recent outing. They remain the team to beat, showing both clinical finishing and tactical discipline.

In contrast, Necaxa—led by head coach Martín Varini—is navigating a difficult campaign, currently sitting in 11th place. While they are mathematically alive in the race for a postseason spot, their consistency has been lacking. Their recent form (L-W-W-D-L in the last five) demonstrates a team that struggles to sustain momentum against tougher opposition. With only 17 points, they are under pressure to secure points at home to solidify their playoff prospects before the regular season concludes.

• Chivas Form: W-W-D-W-W (Dominant in recent weeks, currently 1st).
• Necaxa Form: L-W-W-D-L (Struggling for consistency, currently 11th).
• Key Context: Chivas are pushing to lock in the top seed for the Liguilla, while Necaxa is fighting to climb into the qualification places.

Tactical Analysis & Key Battles

Gabriel Milito has successfully implemented an aggressive, possession-based style at Chivas. They thrive on rotating their front line and utilizing high-pressing to force turnovers, which explains their recent goal-scoring explosion. Chivas will likely look to control the midfield through Erick Gutiérrez and Luis Romo, forcing Necaxa into a defensive shell.

Martín Varini’s Necaxa will almost certainly adopt a "sit deep and counter" approach. To have any chance of an upset, they must look for transitions through their most productive threat, Tomás Badaloni, who has been their standout scorer this season. The key battle will be in the wide areas, where Chivas' attacking fullbacks will test the discipline of the Necaxa defense. If Necaxa can absorb the pressure and isolate the Chivas defenders on the break, they may find space, but their backline will need a flawless performance to keep a high-powered Chivas attack at bay.